Friday, January 10, 2014

JOLTS data as a leading indicator

It will be interesting to see how well JOLTS data portend the next downturn.  They seemed to be a leading indicator for the last downturn, but I wonder if that is typical, or if it was a product of the context leading up to the downturn.  Would hires, quits, and openings have shifted down so early in the absence of the reversal of home prices and the implementation of minimum wage hikes?

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